A bevy of economic reports released Tuesday showed where the economy has been and gave a hint as to where it may be going.
The most up-to-date report came from the Conference Board, with the consumer confidence index for November dropping sharply on concerns over high prices, tariffs and a weakening job market.
The overall index fell 6.8 points in November to 88.7 The present situation index declined 4.3 points, but the forward-looking expectations index dropped 8.6 points to 63.2. That made it 10 consecutive months where that index has been below 80, considered a threshold that signals a recession ahead.
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak.”
“The labor market differential – the share of consumers who say jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying ‘hard to get’ – dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline,” Peterson added. “Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”
Earlier, the government released the delayed retail sales report and producer price index of wholesale inflation, both September releases that had been postponed because of the government shutdown.
Retail sales increased 0.2 percent from August and 4.3% for the 12 months, while the PPI rose by 0.3 percent in September, or 2.7% annually.
“Tuesday’s PPI was in-line with expectations and helps to justify the argument for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December, since it’s clear that inflation is under control, giving the Fed the opportunity to focus more on the labor market, which has been cooling in recent months,” said Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth. “While this data is old and from September, it’s the only inflation data the Fed has to base its current decisions off of.”
The odds of another interest rate cut have see-sawed in recent weeks, leading to a volatile stock market, as various Fed officials have offered different comments on their appetite for further cuts. The central bank lowered interest rates in both September and October, citing weakness in the labor market.
Economists and consumer goods companies have noted the bifurcated nature of the economy, with upper-income Americans driving much of the growth in spending.
“September retail sales show muted growth, with notable monthly declines in categories hard hit by tariffs: auto parts, electronics, appliances, sporting goods and instruments,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “This is a K-shaped economy. Navy Federal’s own data show consumers with over $170,000 in annual income are thriving and growing spending significantly. But moderate-income consumers are pulling back and middle-income consumers are being very selective. The middle class is shopping at Costco and Walmart this holiday season.”
On Tuesday, private payroll firm ADP released its new weekly survey of the labor market showing companies shed an average of 13,500 jobs a week in a four-week period ending Nov. 8. That follows last Friday’s delayed September jobs report that showed an increase of 119,000 jobs.
In other new reports Tuesday, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index of home prices for September recorded a 1.3% annual increase, down from a 1.4% rise in August. Home prices have moderated in 2025 from the rapid pace of appreciation in the prior two years, with once-hot markets in the South and West cooling off.
“The geographic rotation is striking. Markets that were pandemic darlings – particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas – are now experiencing outright price declines,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”
And the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that pending home sales rose 1.9% in October from the prior month, with gains strongest in the Midwest and Northeast.
“While lower rates have brought out more buyers this fall, there are still major constraints in the housing market, and home sales activity is likely to be slow through the end of 2025,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “Rates, which had dropped to a 13-month low, have started to rise again. A lack of October labor market data has created uncertainty about the strength of the economy. There are pockets of weakness in consumer spending heading into the holidays.”
The mix of old and current economic reports did not do much to change the narrative of an economy slowing and struggling with high prices and uncertainty over the fate of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs. Some of those have been reduced of late, but still others are showing up in higher prices. Businesses, meanwhile, remain cautious on hiring.
While consumers appear gloomy, the true test lies ahead in the coming weeks as Americans decide how much to spend on Christmas shopping.
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